Financial Sucking Sounds
We had a major confirmation today. All the trades based on predictability are broken. We saw that in the the currency markets today. The Yen Euro carry trade was broken. In terms of derivatives they are geometrically leveraged with little collateral security. If we trace back what happened with GS and AIG that was the first derivatives bailout. With sovereign risk we are facing the second wave of derivative exposure. We will either see default or cooperation. If cooperation comes in a re-valuation of the dollar it will not be as most people expect. The trend is YEN Euro towards parity, then a reset of obligations leaving China as bag-holder along with oil suppliers.
Tagged with: "borrow • "carry • collateral • crisis • debt • derivatives • dollar • etf • financial • funds • instability • interest • investments • mortgage • municipals • rates • refinance • trade • trading • treasuries • wepollock • Yen
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Show is far from over, I wouldnt even begin to start saying deflation forever. There is no way.
Ben Bukkake losing control…..going to try to keep hold of the dollar going too far up…
@SamuraiCommando
Im not saying deflation “Forever” either. But its pretty much a fact that the federal reserve has been fighting deflation for the last 2 years and will be for the foreseeable future.
@davidAKZ
Your right. But your forgetting that the vast majority of youtubers are still spouting hyperinflation happening in 2010. LMAO Talk about the blind leading the blind. Its almost becoming a comedy routine what some of these youtubers are spouting.
Yeah I agree with that.
Federal reserve could print as much money as they want as long as there are trees. The fight is pathetic David vs Goliath except this isnt a fairy tale. Deflation cannot win with a money printer. Why do you think Bernanke is still there. Everyone can blame him now, his name will be written in the history books, so all the politicians can wash their hands of it. Banks cant have deflation with all these houses on the books. They will get another bailout. maybe secret or hidden.
I do however understand what you are saying. I think anyone who buys anything as an investment assumes a risk vs reward. I hope they understand that. Gold and silver is an insurance policy for me that I pray I will never have to use honestly. Except in the most civilized and organized fashion where we would actually migrate away from Fiat currency as a Union. Its like buying life insurance.
@SamuraiCommando
I might buy gold after the crash, but not at this value.
“after the crash” that is interesting concept. with what?
@SamuraiCommando
Once the deflationary pressures have run its course. Probably when dow equals 3 or 4000 which by historical standards is a much more appropriate spot. The debt bubble we blew up since 1980 explains the huge exponential growth in stock market since then, so until Stocks drop to insanely low leves compared to now I see no need to buy Gold because Gold is severely overpriced in this deflationary spiral.
So when dow is 3k or 4k from sell offs. Retirement funds are locked up for Baby Boomers another lets say at least 10 years. They have to be invested by the brokers. Someone is going to have a boatload of cash when the market tanks, who will be left holding all this dough? It wont be regular citizens. Gov Bonds? put it in the bank for like 15% interest? Gov has to get these toxic real estate assets off banks or crash! Deflation…faster crash. slow or fast how you want it?
Im not arguing values with you I am just trying to understand your scenario. Gold is too expensive but paper pumping is why. Everyone knew that going in, they should have at least.
@SamuraiCommando
Dow was 1000 in 1985. After inflation Dow should be about 2000 in todays money. Now you figure that were in an economic collapse so that puts us down to 1500. Now you factor in as you say many aren’t going to want to be in cash either so thats why I bring the figure up to around 3 or 4000. I would not be surprised to see the down below 5000.
I think you are wrong everyone will want to be in cash in your scenario. The problem is baby boomers who carry most of the wealth in this country have it tied into large retirement accounts. So are these people going to be happy with them just charging them a fee to put their money in a savings account? If you bring the Dow from 10k to 4k what % of that is liquidateable to cash is the question. What % of the markets is retirement accounts? I think huge but that is where I may be wrong.
Go figure, I though that was the dollar who will be defaulting because of it’s debt. The euro? Wow we are really in the weirdest, wildest and turbuilent financial period in history. What will be next?
Well then what… deflationary spiral. By this logic, you should be in cash and nothing else, unless I am missing something.
So now what? Everything down 90% from where they currently are now?
Then what does the government do with our entitlement society? They print what they need. So does that printing offset the spiral? I don’t think it would, but this is all about them keeping control over us. They will stop at nothing to continue their economic reign.
too bad 99% of the bloggers that post on her site wont’ agree with it. Most on that sight would GLADLY hand over their accounts to the government.
You know I thought we were supposed to help each other out here. Most seem to be doing it, but I’m noticing a few youtubers get real personal/elitist about the inflation/deflation argument, and it’s getting to the point of pissing this guy off to no end.
No one knows what the future holds, but petty arguing doesn’t really help the situation, and a guy like me trying to do research and figure out what to do with the table scraps I call savings.
Wepollock… keep up the great videos.
Well my ethos is to be objective. I have lost more than a few subscribers that way. What is the point of being locked into a certainty in the most unstable and uncertain times imaginable?
@wepollock Frankly I watch you and modern mystic mainly because you guys are objective and frankly your detached observations really confirm my own gut instincts about this whole sham we call free market.
I wonder if this debt crisis had struck a year earlier, if it would have been a game changer? Do you agree? I get the feeling that ECB, the IMF, even the G20 still have enough amo to aid Greece and maybe a Spain. I think some of the German & Swiss banks holding greek paper have fixed up their cash balances? Is this really the “tipping point”?
Excellent video.
A question not related to this video.
Where can we buy some Zimbabwean dollars or German Weimar reichsmarks? Ebay is too expensive for me.
ebay.
german Weimar might be difficult to get nowadays? They might be much more expensive than they were then. Most people just burnt them (stupid).
i hope i did right to change euros for gold and silver.
At least i am sure that it will be worth something, there is much less gold and silver (the physical form) than euros.
So i guess it is good.
I do not want any stocks from the stock market or any other paper investment.